As I mentioned in my previous post about the red shirts, I usually avoid writing about politics for two reasons: 1) the situations often evolve too quickly for my sporadic man-child comments to be of any use, and 2), I’ll be the first to admit it – I’m not so smrt in the politics department. However, I am affected by what’s going on, and it has serious implications for the future of Thailand. So, instead of adding to the flood of theories of what happened and opinions on what will happen next, I thought I’d just put out a few thoughts on how a regular dude feels all caught up in what’s going on.
I’m usually able to make up my own mind just fine, but I do take a lot away from conversations with friends, and in this instance it’s particularly interesting to note how I felt after spending time with three distinctly different types, all long-term Bangkok expats, since the bloody crackdown on Khao San Road.
The first friend was someone who quite literally told me that as long as the air con kept running, he didn’t care what happened. That’s all well and good for them, but it didn’t really give me anything to work with; how can you talk to someone about an issue when they don’t have an opinion one way or another about it?
Kind of like this, but with a face.
The second friend is someone who takes a rather alarmist opinion with big issues like this and can talk about conspiracy theories until the cows come home. While I genuinely respect my second friend’s opinions, I do have to take some of the dialogue with a grain of salt. This friend talked about a conspiracy by a “third hand” to sow unrest (likely true), and warned of the possibility of a coming civil war in which the military will fracture and begin to fight. In this scenario, it would be prudent to flee to safer climes lest we be caught up in the breakdown of Thai society into violent anarchy. While what my friend was talking about is possible, I refuse to believe that it is likely. Maybe I’m a naive optimist, but the term civil war is a pretty heavy descriptor, and I do believe the situation in Thailand will heal. Even in Thailand, where money and threats talk louder than words, cooler heads will prevail. Not everyone is a callous megalomaniac. Many are… but not all. At any rate, conversations along these lines always bum me out, and I prefer to avoid them. Whether that’s good sense or simply hiding my head in the sand, well, that’s a judgement call.
The third friend is someone who has been here for many years and has a much rosier outlook. They mentioned that this situation is an unprecedented step forward for Thai culture that has driven the upcountry masses – usually left out of the political process (by choice or by design) – into the political fray. They’re educating themselves on politics now, and while the learning curve is steep, it will be conquered. Somchai the Isaan rice farmer may not have the political savviness of a rich, internationally-educated upper class Bangkokian, but they have the will and desire to learn, and will pass that information to their children. Those in Thai society that have been previously left out in the cold sweltering up-country heat will now, for the first time, be a part of the process. This is a positive thing.
“Hi. Welcome to my protest.”
A Thai coworker asked me a few days ago if this sort of things happens in Canada, to which I replied: “Not anymore, but it did 150 years ago.” It then struck me that many mature democracies in the world today have gone through what Thailand is going through now – the rough, confusing and sometimes bloody road to ‘one man, one vote’. Keep mind that Thailand has only been a democracy for a little under 80 years, and that these things take time to sort out.
While the recent events in Bangkok are deplorable, regrettable and avoidable acts of bullshit machismo and the outdated Thai need to ‘save face’ by both sides, Thailand is certainly not the first country to go through this. Personally, I have hope for Thailand’s future and think that while things may get worse first, they will get better. Thais have an amazing resilience and the ability to see the positive side of life. We can all learn a thing or two from that, methinks.
I will end with a quote from a guy you may of heard of, Winston Churchill:
Democracy is the worst form of government, except all the others that have been tried.
PS – The above misspelling of ‘smart’ was intentional, as any Simpson’s fan would know.
Incredible post Greg, and positive thoughts you’ve shared. This whole situation has had me pretty annoyed actually—I know it’s not really my place to favor one side or the other, but I do live here too and it takes a toll after a while. But the way you’ve put it here, I love the rosy outlook and hope for positive progress…
First of all, I can’t believe that battle went down on Khao San Road! Was it as jammed packed during Songkran as it usually is??
As for the whole situation, I no longer have much faith in democracy. It seems to me that it really comes down to how much money you have. If you don’t have money, you don’t have much say.
And as for the rest of the world, it seems like we may see an uprising of civil unrest in the United States as the economic systems implodes on itself.
It should be an interesting decade…
Nice new lay-out.
Agree re the variety of opinions, most foreigners I know have no idea what is going on. It is healthy to take an interest, although expressing an opinion publicly isn’t.
Btw, I got SMRT instantly – love a well planted Simpsons reference.
Interesting positive thoughts, Greg. I think the Thai society has much going for them but this is one major hump they need to resolve sooner or later. By example, they have found protesting and holding key locations hostage do work as exemplified by the PAD and airport. As long as that precedent stands, worst case scenario is this can escalate. Having said that, I’m impressed by their persistence. They clearly care about this. This isn’t a mai pen rai indifference we’re seeing but a strong belief in what they stand for. We could use that kind of passion in other countries that need citizens to care.
An interesting analysis with some poignant pictures. Thanks for this
I know this isn’t exactly the forum for debating the relative virtues of democracy but, to continue a discussion that began at Greg’s party, I am not sure that democracy is the endpoint towards which all societies do or ought to tend. First, it’s as historically and culturally contingent a method of governance as anything else — I am reminded of Bhutanese farmers who frankly said "what do we know about choosing a leader?" — and so attempts to graft it onto a society that lacks the historical and cultural predicates seems fairly certainly doomed to failure. Discursively, too, it’s a term we often bandy about with little thought to what it actually entails: do we simply mean majority rule (certainly not, if the US response to Hammas’ victory in Palestine is any judge). Does it mean respect for minority rights? Does it mean the sophisticated ability to form a "loyal opposition"? Does it mean freedom of political speech? Lots of times, it seems to me, it’s meant to refer less to a political process and more to a desired state of affairs: accountability of officials, a robust and uninhibited press, an educated populace and some relatively equal distribution of opportunity. For Thailand, I am more interested in the latter than the means by which it is achieved.
Anyway, all of that being said, my guess is that Thailand will take a third way out of the current crisis that is neither civil war nor a populist paradigm shift. I suspect the end result will be a series of complex, backroom political deals that gratify the red shirt leaders while leaving the status quo essentially intact. Political, social and economic interests and loyalties run along fault lines that are as deep as they are hidden, convoluted and alien to Western eyes — this is a country where modern property boundaries are laid out according to an ancient, feudal logic and where publicly traded corporations seek the blessing of a fortune teller before making hiring decisions — and so any farang who hazards a guess (me most of all) as to the specifics of any denouement is per force shooting in the dark. That doesn’t mean we should abdicate our responsibility to understand the current situation as best we can but rather that we should allow for a large degree of uncertainty to inform our prognostications.
Eh. Ok, all that said, it’s time for Fruit Loops.
Good post Greg.
I’ve been trying to keep abreast of the situation over there but it’s been difficult as our press is obsessed with volcanoes and the imminent collapse of the European economy if another one goes off. You have to love an alarmist press. Plus we have an election that ironically, no one gives a shit about and are experiencing massive voter apathy. Thailand barely gets a mention sadly.
I suppose I could have just emailed. My wife keeps me updated a bit but it’s good read various opinions. Even if it is almost impossible to even speculate.
Democracies have massive inherent problems but I’ve wracked my brains for literally the past 10 minutes and can’t think of anything better. Beneficial dictatorship can be good but it’s hard to keep going and you could end up with Singapore and can’t chew gum.
I’m not smrt enough politically either though.
I’d still rather be living out there again.